2019 Outlooks

Our forward-looking views on global credit conditions and trends across various sectors and regions

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15
Nov
2018
/
Cross Sector
Video: 2019 Outlook - Emerging Markets
In this video we discuss credit conditions for global emerging markets, outlining the effects that growth, financial stability, political risk and trade tensions have on emerging market issuers, as well as what to watch out for in the coming year.
15
Nov
2018
/
Cross Sector
Outlook for global emerging markets broadly stable in 2019, although global conditions are tightening
Our outlook balances strong domestic growth and other buffers in most emerging markets with more challenging credit conditions, as global growth slows, interest rates rise and the effect of US-China trade frictions unfolds across the global economy.
13
Nov
2018
/
Cross Sector
Video: 2019 Outlook - Global Credit Conditions
Anne Van Praagh, managing director for Global Strategy & Research at Moody’s Investors Service, outlines how we expect a weakening in credit conditions in the coming year amid rising risks.
12
Nov
2018
/
Cross Sector
Global credit conditions to weaken in 2019 amid slowing growth and rising risks
Credit risks will build in 2019 as economic growth slows, funding costs rise, liquidity tightens and market volatility returns.
8
Nov
2018
/
Cross Sector
Global growth to decelerate amid tightening global liquidity and elevated trade tensions
Global growth will decelerate as economic cycles age, global trade slows, and advanced economies continue to gradually tighten monetary policy. Structural constraints, tighter financing and oil prices will limit growth in emerging market economies.
8
Nov
2018
/
Cross Sector
Infographic: Trade tensions will escalate in 2019
Trade tensions will re-shape trade flows and global supply chains with positive and negative credit effects across sectors.
3
Dec
2018
/
Sovereign & Supranational
Video: 2019 Outlook: Chinese Regional and Local Governments
Jennifer Wong, VP-Senior Analyst, explains the three key drivers of Moody’s negative outlook for Chinese regional and local governments in 2019.
3
Dec
2018
/
Sovereign & Supranational
Negative 2019 outlook for Chinese regional and local governments driven by high leverage of local SOEs
Rising infrastructure spending needs as well as limited borrowing capacity of Chinese regional and local governments (RLGs) mean high liabilities of local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) will continue to grow, constraining the credit quality of RLGs.
6
Nov
2018
/
Sovereign & Supranational
Video: 2019 Global Sovereign Outlook
Alastair Wilson, Managing Director for Global Sovereign Risk at Moody’s Investor’s Service, discusses how sovereigns will mitigate the longstanding credit challenges of high debt, low potential growth, and volatile capital flows.
6
Nov
2018
/
Sovereign & Supranational
Global Sovereign Outlook: 2019 outlook still stable, but slowing growth signals increasingly diverging prospects
The 2019 outlook balances the continued, albeit slowing, growth momentum in the global economy against rising uncertainty over longer-term economic and financial stability.
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10
Dec
2018
/
Corporates
Video: Global Oil and Gas sector outlooks generally positive; Integrated sector remains stable
Steve Wood, managing director for oil gas, outlines the drivers behind the positive outlook for most oil and gas segments in 2019, with leaner operations and supportive if volatile oil prices playing a key role.
4
Dec
2018
/
Corporates
Video: North American non-financial corporates’ 2019 outlook is positive
Bill Wolfe, SVP Corporate Finance, covers key indicators of our 2019 outlook for non-financial North American companies, including Industry Sector Outlooks and their associated business conditions, trade tensions and changing monetary policy.
26
Nov
2018
/
Corporates
2019 Outlook Stable for China Property Sector
Nationwide contracted sales will decline as sales volumes decrease with tight regulatory controls on home purchases, restricted access to credit for both developers and homebuyers, and weaker homebuyer sentiment amid slowing economic growth.
26
Nov
2018
/
Corporates
Podcast: Stable outlook for China property sector despite the expectation of a decline in sales
Hong Kong-based Corporate Finance Managing Director Gary Lau and Senior Vice President Kaven Tsang discuss the factors driving Moody’s stable outlook for the Chinese property sector next year and the risks to this outlook.
20
Nov
2018
/
Corporates
Non-financial corporates – Asia (ex Japan)
Continued, though slowing, GDP growth in Asian and global economies will support stable credit conditions. Rated companies’ financial leverage will improve slightly on moderate earnings growth.
8
Nov
2018
/
Corporates
M&A will support issuance volumes but geopolitical risks loom
As speculative-grade credit quality deteriorates, credit selection will be key as the turn of the cycle approaches. With several factors that could disrupt deal flow, issuance will rely on the ability to withstand potentially destabilizing events.
5
Dec
2018
/
Banking
Video: 2019 outlook for Global Investment Banks is positive
The banks’ stronger balance sheets and more stable earnings will protect them from risks, and their capital and liquidity will remain strong despite a modest rise in shareholder payouts.
5
Dec
2018
/
Banking
Global banks’ creditworthiness will remain stable in 2019 despite slowing economic growth
A generally supportive operating environment will help banks preserve the stronger capitalization achieved in recent years, and still low interest rates will support borrowers’ repayment cap.
6
Dec
2018
/
Insurance
P&C Insurance - Global: 2019 outlook stable as disciplined underwriting and strong capital offset rising claims inflation
Our outlook for the Global P&C Insurance sector is stable. Drivers of this outlook include disciplined underwriting encouraged by still low interest rates, and strong capital despite rising claims costs and lower reserve releases.
4
Dec
2018
/
Insurance
Video: 2019 Outlook: Global Life Insurance
A combination of favorable economic fundamentals, including steady global GDP growth and rising rates in the US and Canada, and insurers’ success in adapting to a prolonged period of low interest rates, are the main forces behind the stable outlook.
19
Nov
2018
/
Insurance
Europe: 2019 outlook remains stable as solid economic growth, increasing rates offset rising M&A and asset risks
The 2019 outlook for the European insurance sector remains stable, supported by economic growth and expectations of rising rates, but pockets of risks are growing.
14
Nov
2018
/
Insurance
Life Insurance - US: 2019 outlook stable as interest rate pressures subside, capital remains strong
Modestly rising interest rates, economic stability, and strong capitalization support a stable outlook for US life insurers over the next 12-18 months.
27
Nov
2018
/
Structured Finance
CLOs – US: Continued economic growth will foster stable performance amid weakening in loan quality, looser structure
Economic growth, benign maturity and time-tested transaction structures will foster stable CLO credit performance next year, though looser structures, weakening loan underwriting will likely persist.
4
Dec
2018
/
US Public Finance
2019 Outlook for US not-for-profit and public healthcare remains negative
Lisa Goldstein, an associate managing director in US Public Finance, discusses the 2019 negative outlook for the US not-for-profit and public healthcare sector.
6
Dec
2018
/
Financial Institutions
Video: 2019 Outlook for Global Asset Management sector is stable
Rokhaya Cisse, Analyst in the Funds & Asset Management group, explains the key drivers of Moody’s stable outlook for asset managers in 2019, as well as risks that lie ahead.

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