Global Macro Outlook 2019-20 (June 2019 Update): Global growth prospects at risk from increasingly uncertain US trade policy
The recent escalation in US-China tensions has clouded the global economic outlook and the risks of a sharper slowdown in global economic growth have risen.
Cross-Sector – Global: Delay in US auto tariffs provides a respite for the global economy, but risks persist
The six-month delay in potential US tariffs on imported autos and parts reduces uncertainty and eases market concerns. However, this de-escalation of trade tensions is likely only temporary.
Emerging markets continue growth trajectory despite market volatility
Laura Acres, Managing Director for Corporate Finance, explains how the long-term story in emerging markets has been one of consistent growth despite the short-term volatility in these markets.
Fed will increasingly rely on balance sheet management in the new normal
The US Federal Reserve will resort to unconventional policy tools more frequently, as the low neutral interest rate environment is becoming the new normal for the US economy.
Sovereigns – Central & Eastern Europe: Lower EU funding from 2021 onward is credit negative for the region's sovereigns
EU funding available to Central and Eastern European sovereigns will fall from 2021 onward as the UK's planned exit from the EU reduces total fund. This is credit negative for the region's sovereigns given the importance of these flows historically.
Emerging Markets: Global economic stress weighing unevenly on business conditions in 2019-20
Emerging market corporate sectors face some common risks in 2019, including slower global growth, variable market sentiment, shifts in trade policies, and geopolitical and ESG risks.
Podcast: China’s Belt and Road – credit implications for Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
In this episode of Moody’s Talks - Senior Credit Officer William Foster and Senior Analyst David Rogovic of the sovereign risk group discuss the credit implications of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on sovereigns in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Government of Turkey – B1 negative: Update following downgrade, continued negative outlook
Our credit view of Turkey balances its large economy and healthy public finances against further erosion in institutional strength and high external vulnerabilities.
Government of India: Rural financial stress, low job creation constrain growth potential, increase fiscal challenges
An analysis of the sovereign credit implications of economic growth dynamics and fiscal consolidation in India.
China: Financial liberalization balances innovation and growth against stability and control
China will maintain its gradual and cautious approach to financial liberalization. However, the pace will gradually accelerate as the cost of restrictions on more strategically important sectors becomes increasingly apparent.
Market sentiment more likely to drive Italy's deficit policy than EC threat of Excessive Deficit Procedure
The reaction of financial markets to Italy's high and rising debt is likely to be more effective in pressuring the government to bring its public finances into line with EU deficit and debt rules.
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Aluminum: Removal of import tariffs likely beneficial to US aluminum industry
Removing tariffs will benefit US aluminum producers. The country is not self-sufficient in aluminum and significant amount comes from Canada, also intercompany flows US and Canada.
China’s tariff retaliation will add to pressures on US liquefied natural gas, agriculture and manufacturing
China's increase in retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion of imports from the US is credit negative for vulnerable US industries, some US states dependent on agriculture and US ports.
Escalation of US tariffs will undermine stabilization of financing conditions and economy
Increased US tariffs on about $200 billion of imports from China to 25% from 10% significantly escalates the US-China trade dispute.
Global Trade Monitor - April 2019 (Presentation)
Uncertainty over the outcome of trade negotiations poses a key risk to the global economic outlook.
Outlook on Mexico’s A3 rating changed to negative on weakening policy framework
Our credit view of Mexico balances its large and diversified economy and stable fiscal metrics with exposure to a less predictable policy framework.
Sovereigns & Supranational – Europe: FAQ on the credit implications of the European parliamentary elections for the union and its member states
The European parliamentary election outcome has no direct implication for our credit view on the EU or euro area as a whole, but increases the risk of early elections in Italy.
Government of Austria: End of ÖVP-led coalition government puts Austria’s reform agenda at risk
Formation of a new majority government coalition will be difficult, making it less probable that the tax relief package in the government's reform agenda will be passed.
Government of South Africa: Growth structurally low, fiscal strength eroding, but credit profile resilient to financing shocks
Structurally low growth, fiscal strength eroding but a number of factors insulate the sovereign's credit profile from financing shocks.
Toyota's patent release may not work to its advantage as rival hybrid technology grows
The rise of competing hybrid systems by other automakers and continued diversification of the product mean that it is still uncertain how much Toyota will benefit from its patent release.
Fintech - Australia: Bank of the Future - Large banks are well placed to defend their positions against growing fintech threat
Australian fintech firms have the potential to disrupt segments of the banking system where incumbents have underserved but major banks are well positioned to defend their positions.
Commonwealth of Independent States: Russia is the regional leader in banking services digitalization by a wide margin
Our comparison of the state of banking services digitalization in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries shows that Russia is far ahead of its regional peers in this area.
Blockchain improves operational efficiency for securitisations, amid new risks
Blockchain can streamline the underlying securitisation process, with stakeholders having easy access to all details of a transaction and an audit trail that reduces fraud.
Germany well placed to withstand the impact from rapid population ageing
Germany faces one of the strongest demographic challenges globally. But its strong fiscal position, high household savings and low private leverage will help it withstand the impact.
Power generation – US: FAQ on the economics of renewable energy, battery storage and fossil-fuel power plants
The US electricity sector faces a major transformation due to declines in both natural gas prices and the cost of renewable generation. These changes are important to long-term credit of electric, gas and other related sectors.
FAQ on the credit impact of hurricanes on US-based issuers
We answer frequently asked questions on the credit effects of hurricanes. These include how we assess the impact of hurricanes and what factors mitigate their effects on issuer credit quality.
Podcast: Renewable energy as a growing asset class for European banks
In this podcast, our senior analysts discuss European banks' exposure to renewable energy projects.They delve into industry dynamics, the development of renewable energy as an asset class, and technological progress.