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Key themes shaping global credit markets

Find out how political risks, ESG and other themes will affect market segments including banking, corporates and insurance.
2020 CREDIT THEMES
Access Moody’s industry-leading analysis across topics such as recession risks, trade tensions and disruptive technologies.
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Risks to credit conditions rise as the global slowdown takes hold
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Outlooks

Global Credit Conditions Outlook

Watch Anne Van Praagh of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss our outlook for the global credit environment in 2020. Overall, we expect credit conditions to weaken as a result of lackluster economic growth, trade policy uncertainty and the effects of an unpredictable political and geopolitical situation. 
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Recession risks
Lower-for-longer interest rates
Political risks
Trade tensions
Disruptive technologies
ESG impact
Research Highlight
Cross-sector
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10 FEBRUARY
2020
Key ESG themes influencing credit in 2020; a summary of the key ESG considerations impacting individual sectors as discussed in our 2020 Outlooks.
Our negative outlook reflects continued slowing global and emerging market growth, with shifts in trade policy, political priorities and financial flows. Against this backdrop, emerging market debt issuers are more vulnerable to sudden shocks.
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Research Highlight
Cross-sector
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16
February
2020
Coronavirus clouds global growth outlook just as the economy showed signs of stabilization
We have revised our 2020 global GDP growth forecast down, reflecting the impact of the coronavirus in China and domestic challenges in India, Mexico & South Africa. For China, we have reduced our growth forecast to 5.2% for 2020 from 5.8% previously.
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Research Highlight
Corporates
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31
January
2020
ISOs moved in negative direction in Q4 2019 amid heightened economic risks
Eight of the 53 Industry Sector Outlooks (ISOs) that we track moved in a negative direction in the last quarter of 2019, signaling fundamental industry trends that continue to cool in 2020.
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Research Highlight
Cross-sector
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21
November
2019
Outlook negative for global emerging markets in 2020 as risks rise on trade, policy and politics
Our negative outlook reflects continued slowing global and emerging market growth, with shifts in trade policy, political priorities and financial flows. Against this backdrop, emerging market debt issuers are more vulnerable to sudden shocks.
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19
Feb
2020
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Cross-sector
Household consumption will contribute little to Mexico's modest recovery
In our new report, The State of the Mexican Consumer, we discuss how households in Mexico are unlikely to ramp up spending this year amid low credit availability.
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19
Feb
2020
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Cross-sector
Risks to Asia’s credit environment are rising as growth outlook slows
Credit conditions in Asia will likely weaken this year in tandem with a slowdown in growth momentum, continued trade policy uncertainty and simmering political disputes. The outbreak of the coronavirus globally has further dented growth prospects.
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Lower-for-longer interest rates

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27
Jan
2020
/
Cross-sector
Lower-for-longer interest rates: Causes, consequences and credit implications
Real interest rates will remain at historic lows over the next several years, as long-term and slow-moving factors continue to exert downward pressure on the natural rate of interest.
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19
Nov
2019
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Financial Institutions
Fresh fall in rates adds to pressure on life insurers’ profitability and economic solvency
Low rates are once again the key risk facing insurers globally, forcing the sector to accelerate its shift towards a less interest rate-sensitive business model.
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30
Jan
2020
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Cross-sector
Brexit – United Kingdom: Transition period likely to end in looser UKEU ties, a negative for a range of UK issuers
After leaving the EU on 31 January, the UK will enter a transition period with the EU. Our base case is that the UK and the EU will agree to a looser trade relationship, resulting in structurally weaker economic fundamentals in the UK.
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20
Feb
2020
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Trade disputes pose threats to China's tech sector development
China-US trade relations remain strained despite the recent phase-one trade agreement, with potential long-lasting ramifications for China’s high- and mid-end technology sectors.
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10
Feb
2020
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Cross-sector
Potential escalation of US-China and US-EU tensions presents risks to global trade outlook
In this Global Trade Monitor, we discuss how risks of tensions between the US and China will continue. US-EU trade negotiations are also proving challenging, while the possibility of US tariffs on imported autos and parts continues to loom.
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22
Jan
2020
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Cross-sector
Digitization and attack sophistication pose heightened cyber risks in 2020
Cyber risks are rising, with potential negative credit implications for an array of sectors.
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13
Jan
2020
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Banking
Large banks benefit from rapid digitization and the diminishing need for branch density
The continued rise in digital users will facilitate further branch reductions, with deposit market share gains accruing to the largest and most innovative banks.
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10
Feb
2020
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Cross-sector
Women’s rising education levels buoy US growth, but student loan debt weighs on finances
Women in the US have strengthened their earning power as a result of increased higher education attainment. But they also have larger student debt burdens than do men and slower loan repayment rates, a potential source of financial fragility.
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3
Feb
2020
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Cross-sector
Sustainable Finance – Global: Green, social and sustainability bond issuance to hit record $400 billion in 2020
We expect green, social and sustainability bond issuance will hit a combined record of $400 billion in 2020, up 24% from the previous record of $323 billion achieved in 2019.
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