The Big Picture

Key themes shaping global credit markets in 2019

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Growth
Financial Stability
Trade Tensions
Political Risks
Technology & Innovation
ESG Risks
Video Highlight
Cross Sector
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7
May
2019
Emerging markets continue growth trajectory despite market volatility
Laura Acres, Managing Director for Corporate Finance, explains how the long-term story in emerging markets has been one of consistent growth despite the short-term volatility in these markets.
Video Highlight
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6
May
2019
Video: US auto tariffs risk global growth
Robert Jankowitz and Elena Duggar discuss the potential 25% US tariffs on autos and parts that could have significant risk to global growth and the global auto industry.
Report Highlight
Cross Sector
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16
April
2019
Brexit delay a positive, but fall in spending and investment continues to weigh heavily on UK businesses
Colin Ellis discusses the positive implications of the latest Brexit extension. However, he highlights the UK government’s failure to achieve consensus and what it means for Moody’s base case scenario for the UK.
15
May
2019
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China’s competing policy objectives limit credit benefits of central oversight of RLGs
The central government's oversight efforts have begun to show some positive results for regional and local governments (RLGs). However, RLGs will continue to have incentives to assume additional debt.
13
May
2019
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Cross-Sector - Emerging Markets: Global economic stress weighing unevenly on business conditions in 2019-20
Emerging market corporate sectors face some common risks in 2019, including slower global growth, variable market sentiment, shifts in trade policies, and geopolitical and ESG risks.
3
May
2019
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Sovereign & Supranational
Podcast: China’s Belt and Road – credit implications for Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
In this episode of Moody’s Talks - Senior Credit Officer William Foster and Senior Analyst David Rogovic of the sovereign risk group discuss the credit implications of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on sovereigns in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
2
May
2019
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Sovereign - US: US expansion is continuing but credit conditions are becoming less supportive
A continued pause in rate hikes and better sentiment could help extend the economic expansion, but slower growth, market volatility and policy uncertainty are tempering credit conditions.
1
May
2019
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Spain’s election outcome offers paths to more stable government
The exact credit implications will rest primarily on whether the future government will be able to command the legislative majority and internal consensus needed to advance structural reform.
28
Mar
2019
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Leveraged Loan Covenants - North America: Exceptions to call protections continue to expand, rendering them useless to lenders
As borrowers continue to choose loans over bonds, lenders may be surprised to find out just how ineffective current loan call protections are, if they exist at all.
25
Mar
2019
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Latin America: Steady US rates support favorable funding conditions
The shift in US interest rate expectations will likely promote interest rate and currency stability in larger Latin American economies with well-anchored inflation expectations.
21
Mar
2019
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Emerging Markets: Risks from financial misreporting vary, disclosure has major credit implications
The credit implications of the disclosure of unreported financial liabilities depend on their scale, schedule of payments, denominated currency and the contractual seniority.
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13
May
2019
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Trade - US and China: Increased US tariffs to weigh on economic growth in China and the rest of Asia
Chinese commodity, food and beverage, and manufacturing companies have the most direct and indirect exposure to US tariffs. Financial effect of tariffs will likely appear in H1 2019 results.
10
May
2019
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Cross-Sector – US: Escalation of US tariffs will undermine stabilization of financing conditions and economy
Increased US tariffs on about $200 billion of imports from China to 25% from 10% significantly escalates the US-China trade dispute.
6
May
2019
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Video: US auto tariffs risk global growth
Robert Jankowitz and Elena Duggar discuss the potential 25% US tariffs on autos and parts that could have significant risk to global growth and the global auto industry.
25
Apr
2019
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Cross Sector
Uncertainty over trade negotiations poses a key risk to the global economic outlook
Our latest Global Trade Monitor discuss implications of potential US tariffs on imported autos and parts, the prospect of a US-China trade agreement, and the likelihood that ratification of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be delayed beyond 2019.
22
May
2019
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Government of Austria: End of ÖVP-led coalition government puts Austria’s reform agenda at risk
Formation of a new majority government coalition will be difficult, making it less probable that the tax relief package in the government's reform agenda will be passed.
16
May
2019
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Sovereigns – Middle East: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq are most exposed to Iran's potential blockade of Strait of Hormuz
Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq, and to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, depend on the Strait to transport oil and gas exports, exposing them to geopolitical risk.
15
May
2019
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Government of South Africa: Growth structurally low, fiscal strength eroding, but credit profile resilient to financing shocks
Structurally low growth, fiscal strength eroding but a number of factors insulate the sovereign's credit profile from financing shocks.
16
Apr
2019
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Cross Sector
Brexit delay a positive, but fall in spending and investment continues to weigh heavily on UK businesses
Colin Ellis discusses the positive implications of the latest Brexit extension. However, he highlights the UK government’s failure to achieve consensus and what it means for Moody’s base case scenario for the UK.
20
May
2019
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Fintech - Australia: Bank of the Future - Large banks are well placed to defend their positions against growing fintech threat
Australian fintech firms have the potential to disrupt segments of the banking system where incumbents have underserved but major banks are well positioned to defend their positions.
12
Mar
2019
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Structured Finance
Podcast: Underwriting processes will be improved by strategic use of technology
Analysts from our structured finance consumer team discuss how technological enhancements in retail credit underwriting have the potential to improve overall underwriting quality for European lenders.
6
Mar
2019
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Cross Sector
Podcast: Assessing credit implications of cyber risk
Senior Vice President Robard Williams speaks with Managing Director Derek Vadala about cyber risk-related trends, Moody’s framework for assessing these risks, and potential implications for creditworthiness across sectors.
20
Feb
2019
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Brazil: As digital platforms change investor landscape, independent managers benefit
With greater ease of capturing funds and attracting investment, smaller independent managers in Brazil will continue to gain AUM given their focus on multimarket and equities.
9
May
2019
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Cross-Sector – Green Bonds: Corporate issuers drive strong global green bond volume in Q1 2019
Issuers brought $47.2 billion of green bonds to market globally in the first quarter of 2019, a 40% increase over the first quarter of last year.
4
Apr
2019
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Corporates
Podcast: LNG export options, carbon awareness push natural gas toward global marketplace
We discuss the credit implications of a significant shift in opportunities now under way in the North American natural gas market—one that will gradually favor producers who have long struggled with weak commodity prices.
2
Apr
2019
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Sovereigns – Global: MDB climate finance builds resilience in credit profiles of climate-vulnerable sovereigns
Low-cost climate financing is poised to grow and support climate resiliency in climate-vulnerable sovereigns, offsetting some of the economic and fiscal costs that would occur in its absence.
18
Mar
2019
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Banks - Commonwealth of Independent States: Corporate governance is a prevalent credit weakness
Risks from weak corporate governance undermine the credit profiles of a significant number of banks in the region.
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