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Key themes shaping global credit markets in 2019

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Growth
Financial Stability
Trade Tensions
Political Risks
Technology & Innovation
ESG Risks
Highlights
Cross Sector
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16
April
2019
Video: Brexit delay a positive, but fall in spending and investment continues to weigh heavily on UK businesses
Colin Ellis discusses the positive implications of the latest Brexit extension. However, he highlights the UK government’s failure to achieve consensus on the terms of exit from the EU and what this means for Moody’s base case scenario for the UK.
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Highlights
Cross Sector
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5
March
2019
Frequently asked investor questions about environmental, social and governance issues
Frequently asked investor questions about environmental, social and governance issues
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Highlights
Cross Sector
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28
February
2019
Global economy will continue to weaken throughout 2019 and into 2020
Growth of the G-20 economies will slow to 2.9% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020. As the pace of economic expansion moderates, we expect the major central banks to adopt a more cautious approach.
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9
Apr
2019
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Sovereign & Supranational
Government of Brazil: Proposed reforms would support fiscal consolidation and could boost economic growth in the medium term
Brazil’s new government has announced a wide-ranging reform agenda, which would support Brazil’s fiscal consolidation efforts and could potentially boost the country’s medium-term growth prospects
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9
Apr
2019
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Cross Sector
US auto tariffs would pose risks to global growth and weigh on auto sectors in Germany, Japan and Korea
Potential US tariffs would have a material impact on auto industry exports from Germany, Japan and Korea. US auto tariffs would be credit negative for the global auto industry.
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8
Apr
2019
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Retail access to Chinese RLG bonds will help diversify investor base, a credit positive
Between late March and early April, six of China's regional and local governments (RLGs) - Ningbo, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Shandong and Beijing - became the first in the country to sell their bonds directly to individual investors.
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4
Apr
2019
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Cross Sector
FAQ: The next US recession
We address some questions we frequently receive on the timing, potential triggers, amplitude and duration of the next recession in the United States.
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18
Mar
2019
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Cross Sector
The State of the US Consumer
Consumption will remain a point of strength for the economy, while debt service will stay manageable.
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5
Mar
2019
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Most sovereigns resilient to rising interest rates, but some are more exposed to country-specific shocks
A more rapid tightening in financing conditions than currently anticipated would leave Italy and Portugal most at risk.
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Financial Stability

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28
Mar
2019
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Leveraged Loan Covenants - North America: Exceptions to call protections continue to expand, rendering them useless to lenders
As borrowers continue to choose loans over bonds, lenders may be surprised to find out just how ineffective current loan call protections are, if they exist at all.
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25
Mar
2019
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Latin America: Steady US rates support favorable funding conditions
The shift in US interest rate expectations will likely promote interest rate and currency stability in larger Latin American economies with well-anchored inflation expectations.
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21
Mar
2019
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Emerging Markets: Risks from financial misreporting vary, disclosure has major credit implications
The credit implications of the disclosure of unreported financial liabilities depend on their scale, schedule of payments, denominated currency and the contractual seniority.
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18
Mar
2019
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Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor
The shadow banking sector shrank by RMB4.3 trillion in 2018 to end the year at RMB61.3 trillion, its lowest since the end of 2016 or just before the regulatory crackdown on the sector began.
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12
Mar
2019
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CMBS — EMEA: Leverage in CMBS 2.0 is elevated, considering the loan risk profile
CMBS 2.0 loans exhibit a growing risk profile, driven by a property market in the late phases of the cycle and a rising trend in leverage on the underlying loans.
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11
Mar
2019
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Non-Financial Companies - Americas: Concentration risk is something to watch in still-accommodative financing environment
Credit erosion can be both abrupt and significant when a company loses a key customer or supplier.
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11
Apr
2019
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Energy trade shift supports US economy but is negative for some LatAm exporters
The US energy trade balance with Latin America is shifting from deficit toward surplus, a trend that has credit implications for energy producers in both regions.
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9
Apr
2019
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US auto tariffs would pose risks to global growth and weigh on auto sectors in Germany, Japan and Korea
US auto tariffs would be credit negative for sovereigns outside of North America with large auto manufacturing industries and for auto and auto parts companies globally.
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22
Feb
2019
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China: Level playing field pledges have little nearterm credit impact, could be positive for government, business in long run
China's commitments to the US on trade and creating a level playing field will foster innovation and technology development if subject to clear timetables and transparent monitoring.
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20
Feb
2019
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Germany's growth would slow if proposed US auto tariff increase is implemented
US auto tariffs of 20%-25% would slow GDP growth by around 0.2 percentage point annually.
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21
Jan
2019
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Trade protection measures are mildly credit positive for EU-based steel producers
We think the European Commission's final response to US tariffs on EU steel imports will have only a limited effect.
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17
Jan
2019
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Global Trade Monitor – January 2019: Trade uncertainty is beginning to affect investment decisions
Significant sector and regional impacts of ongoing trade disputes are likely, including shifts in supply chains. However, further escalation of tariffs is now less likely in the short term.
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16
Apr
2019
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Cross Sector
Video: Brexit delay a positive, but fall in spending and investment continues to weigh heavily on UK businesses
Colin Ellis discusses the positive implications of the latest Brexit extension. However, he highlights the UK government’s failure to achieve consensus on the terms of exit from the EU and what this means for Moody’s base case scenario for the UK.
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11
Apr
2019
/
Cross Sector
United Kingdom: Extension of Brexit process avoids imminent no-deal outcome, but uncertainty remains
Final Brexit outcome remains unclear since parliament has not agreed on terms for leaving the EU, but a near-term “no-deal” Brexit has been avoided.
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2
Apr
2019
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Cross Sector
Cross-Sector – Turkey: Credibility and effectiveness of postelection reform plans key to sovereign risk
Ruling AK Party loses control of Ankara and other key cities amidst deepening recession ahead of long election gap, which may propel long-delayed economic reforms.
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12
Mar
2019
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Structured Finance
Podcast: Underwriting processes will be improved by strategic use of technology
Analysts from our structured finance consumer team discuss how technological enhancements in retail credit underwriting have the potential to improve overall underwriting quality for European lenders.
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6
Mar
2019
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Cross Sector
Podcast: Assessing credit implications of cyber risk
Senior Vice President Robard Williams speaks with Managing Director Derek Vadala about cyber risk-related trends, Moody’s framework for assessing these risks, and potential implications for creditworthiness across sectors.
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20
Feb
2019
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Brazil: As digital platforms change investor landscape, independent managers benefit
With greater ease of capturing funds and attracting investment, smaller independent managers in Brazil will continue to gain AUM given their focus on multimarket and equities.
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19
Feb
2019
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Virginia: Growth of technology sector will drive economic growth and diversification
The large federal government presence in Virginia has set the state up to have a thriving tech sector, which is beneficial for the state, local governments and higher education institutions.
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10
Dec
2018
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China: Tighter regulation, growing partnerships strengthen online financial services
Online financial services have grown rapidly, driven by increased availability of third-party (non-bank) platforms, which are vehicles for making loans and distributing investment products.
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28
Nov
2018
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Most GIBs have means to meet the digital threat, but need agile strategies to respond
This report analyzes the threats and opportunities arising for global investment banks from the rise of fintech and big tech.
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4
Apr
2019
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Corporates
Podcast: LNG export options, carbon awareness push natural gas toward global marketplace
We discuss the credit implications of a significant shift in opportunities now under way in the North American natural gas market—one that will gradually favor producers who have long struggled with weak commodity prices.
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2
Apr
2019
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Sovereigns – Global: MDB climate finance builds resilience in credit profiles of climate-vulnerable sovereigns
Low-cost climate financing is poised to grow and support climate resiliency in climate-vulnerable sovereigns, offsetting some of the economic and fiscal costs that would occur in its absence.
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2
Apr
2019
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Banking
Banks - Europe: FAQ - Money laundering and economic sanction breaches remain costly threats
We answer frequently asked questions regarding the impact of money laundering and economic sanctions on European banks.
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18
Mar
2019
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Banks - Commonwealth of Independent States: Corporate governance is a prevalent credit weakness
Risks from weak corporate governance undermine the credit profiles of a significant number of banks in the region.
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5
Feb
2019
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Automakers face multiple challenges from carbon transition
Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions expose automakers to threats like: rising and uneven regulatory pressures, changing consumer preferences, and disruptive technological shocks.
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Emerging Markets Focus

Explore the global, regional and national credit risk dynamics across developing economies
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2019 Outlook: Emerging Markets

Discover the effects that growth, financial stability, political risk and trade tensions have on emerging market issuers, as well as what to watch out for in the coming year.
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2019 Global Sovereign Outlook

Learn how sovereigns will mitigate the longstanding credit challenges of high debt, low potential growth, longer-term demographic trends, and volatile capital flows.
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