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Key themes shaping global credit markets

Find out how political risks, ESG and other themes will affect market segments including banking, corporates and insurance.
2020 CREDIT THEMES
Access Moody’s industry-leading analysis across topics such as recession risks, trade tensions and disruptive technologies.
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Risks to credit conditions rise as the global slowdown takes hold
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Outlooks

Global Credit Conditions Outlook

Watch Anne Van Praagh of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss our outlook for the global credit environment in 2020. Overall, we expect credit conditions to weaken as a result of lackluster economic growth, trade policy uncertainty and the effects of an unpredictable political and geopolitical situation. 
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Recession risks
Lower-for-longer interest rates
Political risks
Trade tensions
Disruptive technologies
ESG impact
Credit Trends 2020
BEGINNING IN EUROPE
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14
JANUARY
2020
Navigating a more fractured world – looks into the impact of increasing polarization, geopolitical risks and the low or negative interest rate environment
Emerging market sovereigns, pharmaceuticals and automotive manufacturers are among the largest sectors facing high social credit risk.
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Research Highlight
Cross-sector
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21
November
2019
Outlook negative for global emerging markets in 2020 as risks rise on trade, policy and politics
Our negative outlook reflects continued slowing global and emerging market growth, with shifts in trade policy, political priorities and financial flows. Against this backdrop, emerging market debt issuers are more vulnerable to sudden shocks.
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Research Highlight
Cross-sector
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14
November
2019
Global Macro Outlook 2020-21: Global growth will remain sluggish as large engines of economic activity slow
We do not expect the global economy to enter a recession in 2020 or 2021. However, the current economic environment is characterized by structurally low growth, low inflation and limited policy space.
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Research Highlight
Cross-sector
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25
October
2019
Introducing Moody’s Social Risks Heat Map
Emerging market sovereigns, pharmaceuticals and automotive manufacturers are among the largest sectors facing high social credit risk.
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15
Jan
2020
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Sovereign & Supranational
Consumption is powering Brazil’s ongoing recovery
Household consumption will likely improve in 2020, contributing to Brazil’s economic recovery.
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2
Dec
2019
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Cross-sector
China’s economic slowdown is poised to continue
Policy focus is shifting toward maintaining stability as trade uncertainty continues to weigh on China’s economic outlook. As a result, public sector leverage will rise modestly, led by state-directed investment.
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Lower-for-longer interest rates

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19
Nov
2019
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Financial Institutions
Fresh fall in rates adds to pressure on life insurers’ profitability and economic solvency
Low rates are once again the key risk facing insurers globally, forcing the sector to accelerate its shift towards a less interest rate-sensitive business model.
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13
Sep
2019
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Banking
ECB's introduction of deposit tiering system will mitigate effect of low interest rates on EU banks’ margins
The new two-tier remuneration of ECB reserves, will reduce by around €2 billion the annual charge paid by EU banks on their liquidity placed at the central bank.
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20
Jan
2020
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Sovereign & Supranational
Hong Kong downgraded to Aa3 stable on weakening institutions and governance strength
Hong Kong’s government has not put forward any tangible plans to address the political, economic and social concerns raised by its population over the past nine months.
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16
Jan
2020
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Cross-sector
US-Iran tensions raise cyber risk; credit impact would depend on attack severity
Recent US government warnings point to a heightened risk of Iranian cyberattacks. Although predicting which sectors or issuers would be most at risk is difficult, there would likely be a wide range of potential targets.
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16
Jan
2020
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Cross-sector
“Phase one” US-China deal is credit positive, but scope for friction persists
The deal reduces political uncertainty, which will strengthen global risk appetite and bolster the ongoing rally in emerging market capital inflows.
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28
Oct
2019
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Corporates
Potential US-China trade deal reduces immediate risk to Chinese companies' revenue growth
If US tariffs rise, the indirect negative effects on Chinese companies would be widespreadgiven the large number of companies involved in supply chains.
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25
Nov
2019
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Sovereign & Supranational
Cyberattacks on governments are rising globally but pose limited risks to credit quality
The growing trend toward digitization has increased governments' exposure to cyberattacks. But governments typically oversee large, diversified economies and have fiscal resources that help insulate them from negative effects of an attack.
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12
Nov
2019
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Sovereign & Supranational
Digital technologies likely to enhance credit profiles for countries that leverage benefits while managing disruptions
The benefits from automation, AI and digitalization are likely to be spread unevenly because of differences in environments conducive to innovation, fiscal buffers and wealth.
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16
Jan
2020
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Sovereign & Supranational
Rising sea levels pose long-term credit threat to a number of sovereigns
For the most exposed sovereigns, the pace of increased frequency and severity of natural disasters related to rising sea levels and the effectiveness of adaptation measures will determine the degree of credit-negative effects.
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13
Jan
2020
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Cross-sector
Australia’s bushfires will pose rising recurring costs for central and state governments
The credit implications of Australia’s ongoing bushfire season are limited given the contained near-term economic costs (0.1% of GDP) and the government’s ample fiscal buffers.
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