The Big Picture

Key themes shaping global credit markets

Find out how political risks, ESG and other themes will affect market segments including banking, corporates and insurance.
2020 CREDIT THEMES
Access Moody’s industry-leading analysis across topics such as recession risks, trade tensions and disruptive technologies.
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Risks to credit conditions rise as the global slowdown takes hold

Global Credit Conditions Outlook

Watch Anne Van Praagh of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss our outlook for the global credit environment in 2020. Overall, we expect credit conditions to weaken as a result of lackluster economic growth, trade policy uncertainty and the effects of an unpredictable political and geopolitical situation. 

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Recession risks
Lower-for-longer interest rates
Political risks
Trade tensions
Disruptive technologies
ESG impact
Credit Trends 2020
BEGINNING IN EUROPE
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14
JANUARY
2020
Navigating a more fractured world – looks into the impact of increasing polarization, geopolitical risks and the low or negative interest rate environment
In our video, Moody’s analysts Rahul Ghosh, Jennifer Wong, Simone Andrews, and Ram Sri-Saravanapavaan discuss the 14 sectors with roughly $8 trillion in rated debt whose credit quality is most at risk from social considerations.
Report Highlight
Cross-sector
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14
November
2019
Global Macro Outlook 2020-21: Global growth will remain sluggish as large engines of economic activity slow
We do not expect the global economy to enter a recession in 2020 or 2021. However, the current economic environment is characterized by structurally low growth, low inflation and limited policy space.
Research Highlight
Cross-sector
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15
October
2019
Global Trade Monitor - October 2019
Despite recent announcements of a potential agreement, US-China negotiations are likely to remain challenging, and trade disputes and uncertainty will continue to weigh on global credit conditions.
Video Highlight
Cross-sector
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25
October
2019
Introducing Moody’s Social Risks Heat Map
In our video, Moody’s analysts Rahul Ghosh, Jennifer Wong, Simone Andrews, and Ram Sri-Saravanapavaan discuss the 14 sectors with roughly $8 trillion in rated debt whose credit quality is most at risk from social considerations.
13
Nov
2019
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Cross-sector
US consumption remains strong overall
In our latest State of the US Consumer report, we discuss how consumption will likely remain a bright spot in 2020 among otherwise slowing drivers of the economy.
11
Nov
2019
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Sovereign & Supranational
Negative 2020 outlook for sovereigns globally as unpredictable, disruptive political environment exacerbates credit challenges
An increasingly antagonistic global political environment is exacerbating the gradual growth slowdown, weakening institutional strength and raising the risk of economic or financial shocks.
13
Sep
2019
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Banking
ECB's introduction of deposit tiering system will mitigate effect of low interest rates on EU banks’ margins
The new two-tier remuneration of ECB reserves, will reduce by around €2 billion the annual charge paid by EU banks on their liquidity placed at the central bank.
12
Sep
2019
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Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions – United States: Continued low interest rates will alter firms' behavior, encourage more risk-taking
A prolonged period of low interest rates will have a large impact on the financial strategies of US banks, asset managers and insurers.
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6
Nov
2019
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Sovereign & Supranational
Income inequality in Europe is associated with weaker institutional strength
The EU has some of the lowest levels of income inequality in the world, but levels have risen over the last 30 years. Income inequalities can increase political risks, slow reform momentum, generate spending pressures and weaken long-term growth.
22
Oct
2019
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Cross-sector
Brexit – UK: Parliamentary vote for Brexit deal indicates first step towards orderly exit, but with a further delay likely
The UK Parliament's vote in favour of legislation to implement a new Brexit deal represents a clear first step towards resolving the deadlock over the UK's exit from the European Union.
28
Oct
2019
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Corporates
Potential US-China trade deal reduces immediate risk to Chinese companies' revenue growth
If US tariffs rise, the indirect negative effects on Chinese companies would be widespreadgiven the large number of companies involved in supply chains.
17
Oct
2019
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Cross-sector
Europe's concentrated trade exposure to China restricts risks to certain countries and sectors
China's ongoing trade tensions with the US, slowing growth and the rebalancing of its supply chain away from imports present risks for a number of countries in the European Union.
12
Nov
2019
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Sovereign & Supranational
Digital technologies likely to enhance credit profiles for countries that leverage benefits while managing disruptions
The benefits from automation, AI and digitalization are likely to be spread unevenly because of differences in environments conducive to innovation, fiscal buffers and wealth.
15
Oct
2019
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Cross-sector
Digital currencies have promise beyond niche applications but constraints remain
Credit implications for debt issuers will depend on whether they can streamline processes, reduce costs, capture value from customers and adapt to competitive pressure from new entrants.
5
Nov
2019
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US Public Finance
Affordable housing shortage and homelessness pose social and financial risks
Lack of affordable housing and rising homelessness are social and financial strains on many public finance issuers, posing credit risks associated with expenses, leverage and other factors.
4
Nov
2019
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Corporates
Automotive manufacturing – Global: Substantial variation exists in automakers' carbon transition risk profiles
The median score for the 20 leading automakers we examined in this report is CT-6, indicating moderate positioning for carbon transition on our 10-point CTA scoring scale.
5
Nov
2019
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US Public Finance
Affordable housing shortage and homelessness pose social and financial risks
Lack of affordable housing and rising homelessness are social and financial strains on many public finance issuers, posing credit risks associated with expenses, leverage and other factors.
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