Global Macro Outlook 2019-20 (June 2019 Update): Global growth prospects at risk from increasingly uncertain US trade policy
The recent escalation in US-China tensions has clouded the global economic outlook and the risks of a sharper slowdown in global economic growth have risen.
Cross-Sector – Global: Delay in US auto tariffs provides a respite for the global economy, but risks persist
The six-month delay in potential US tariffs on imported autos and parts reduces uncertainty and eases market concerns. However, this de-escalation of trade tensions is likely only temporary.
Emerging markets continue growth trajectory despite market volatility
Laura Acres, Managing Director for Corporate Finance, explains how the long-term story in emerging markets has been one of consistent growth despite the short-term volatility in these markets.
Euro Area: Progress on euro area reforms will remain slow, weakening resistance to future shocks
European authorities have made further progress in reducing credit risks in the euro area. However, recent reforms fail to fully address the credit linkages
between sovereigns and banks, while pockets of risk remain in both sectors.
Fed will increasingly rely on balance sheet management in the new normal
The US Federal Reserve will resort to unconventional policy tools more frequently, as the low neutral interest rate environment is becoming the new normal for the US economy.
Colombia: Economic recovery will support the sovereign but sector-specific risks linger
Colombia's economic activity is poised for a moderate pickup over the next two years, a credit positive for the sovereign. However, the faster recovery will not fully compensate for significant sector-specific risks that remain elsewhere.
Emerging Markets: Global economic stress weighing unevenly on business conditions in 2019-20
Emerging market corporate sectors face some common risks in 2019, including slower global growth, variable market sentiment, shifts in trade policies, and geopolitical and ESG risks.
Argentina’s rating outlook changed to negative on policy uncertainty
Our credit view of Argentina reflects its large and relatively wealthy economy against rising policy uncertainty and the risk it poses for increased financing pressures and eroding buffers.
Four significant business and finance vulnerabilities amplify credit risk in Latin America
In a new cross-sector report we study the effects of corruption, commodity prices and portfolio flows, technological disruption, and skills gaps on Latin America’s business, finance and macro-economic conditions.
Government of Turkey: Dismissal of Turkish Central Bank governor highlights institutional weaknesses and vulnerability to shocks
The latest developments are a further illustration of the erosion of the central bank's independence in terms of setting monetary policy and also the country's institutional strength.
China’s A1 stable rating affirmed on ability to contain rise in leverage
China’s economy-wide leverage is likely to continue rising, with pockets of financial stress developing periodically for some local banks or State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
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Aluminum: Removal of import tariffs likely beneficial to US aluminum industry
Removing tariffs will benefit US aluminum producers. The country is not self-sufficient in aluminum and significant amount comes from Canada, also intercompany flows US and Canada.
China’s tariff retaliation will add to pressures on US liquefied natural gas, agriculture and manufacturing
China's increase in retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion of imports from the US is credit negative for vulnerable US industries, some US states dependent on agriculture and US ports.
Escalation of US tariffs will undermine stabilization of financing conditions and economy
Increased US tariffs on about $200 billion of imports from China to 25% from 10% significantly escalates the US-China trade dispute.
Global Trade Monitor - April 2019 (Presentation)
Uncertainty over the outcome of trade negotiations poses a key risk to the global economic outlook.
Cross-Sector – Turkey: Renewed volatility weighs on domestic issuers reliant on external financing
The independence of the central bank, as well as the government's unwillingness or inability to implement policies that will sustain external investors' confidence, remain a concern.
Mexico: Lower growth in an increasingly unpredictable policy environment
Unpredictable policymaking is undermining investor confidence and medium-term economic prospects. Lower growth, together with changes to energy polic introduce risks to Mexico's medium-term fiscal outlook.
Sovereigns & Supranational – Europe: FAQ on the credit implications of the European parliamentary elections for the union and its member states
The European parliamentary election outcome has no direct implication for our credit view on the EU or euro area as a whole, but increases the risk of early elections in Italy.
Government of South Africa: Growth structurally low, fiscal strength eroding, but credit profile resilient to financing shocks
Structurally low growth, fiscal strength eroding but a number of factors insulate the sovereign's credit profile from financing shocks.
Manufacturing — Global: Execution, expertise, M&A: key risks in the race for the Industrial Internet of Things
New technologies are blurring the lines between industrial hardware and software companies, while customers are still uncertain about how to make use of digitalization.
Current business case for 5G mobile technology is uncompelling in Asia-Pacific
Lack of demand and a clear business case for deployment are likely to slow adoption and rollout. Implementation of 5G will also involve network reconfiguration and business model changes.
Podcast: Artificial intelligence benefits more likely on the economy, will take time to emerge
In this episode of Moody's Talks, Associate Managing Director Gene Fang and Assistant Vice President Christian Fang, both of the Sovereign Risk Group, discuss the impact of artificial intelligence on government credit quality.
Toyota's patent release may not work to its advantage as rival hybrid technology grows
The rise of competing hybrid systems by other automakers and continued diversification of the product mean that it is still uncertain how much Toyota will benefit from its patent release.
Podcast: Environmental, social and governance risks are growing for banks and insurers
In this podcast, we discuss how the credit strength of insurers and banks across the globe can be affected by environmental, social and governance risks.
Regional Governments – Russia: Stronger governance and tighter federal oversight will further reduce refinancing risks
Various central government initiatives have strengthened governance standards. We expect this trend to lead to higher liquidity buffers, lower leverage and improved policy predictability, which will in turn improve creditworthiness in the long term.
Maritime Shipping - Global: Complying with IMO 2020's new emissions standards will weigh on credit quality
Shipping companies have options to meet the new, stricter emissions standards, effective January 2020, but all are costly with additional capital or higher operating costs.
Power generation – US: FAQ on the economics of renewable energy, battery storage and fossil-fuel power plants
The US electricity sector faces a major transformation due to declines in both natural gas prices and the cost of renewable generation. These changes are important to long-term credit of electric, gas and other related sectors.